An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach for Nigerian GDP, Exchange Rate and Foreign Import Trade

Authors

  • Hamidu Aliyu Chamalwa Department of Statistics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Maiduguri, Borno State
  • Muhammad Abbas Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Borno State University, Maiduguri, Borno State
  • Bashir Abdulsalam Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Borno State University, Maiduguri, Borno State
  • Luqman Yunusa Baba Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal Polytechnic Nasarawa, Nasarawa State

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56892/bima.v8i3B.921

Keywords:

adjustment, autoregressive, exists, lag, relationship,

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between GPD and Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade using ARDL approach. The data used for the study was obtained from the CBN statistical Bulletin. The test of stationarity performed on the variables indicated that they are all on stationary at levels and the order of integration are (2), (1) and (1) for GDP, exchange rate and Foreign Trade respectively. The results revealed that a long-run relationship between foreign import trade, GDP and foreign exchange. The speed of adjustment to equilibrium; when there was a shift and suggested that it could take about 86.3% of previous years for it to return to a stable state. The study recommended that government should strengthen foreign exchange policies, foreign trade for sustained economic growth.

 

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Published

2024-10-07

How to Cite

Aliyu Chamalwa, H. ., Abbas, M. ., Abdulsalam, B. ., & Yunusa Baba, L. (2024). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach for Nigerian GDP, Exchange Rate and Foreign Import Trade. BIMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (2536-6041), 8(3B), 215-221. https://doi.org/10.56892/bima.v8i3B.921

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 3B (2024): Volume 8 Issue 3B(October2024)

Section

Articles