TIME SERIES MODELING OF CURRENCIES IN CIRCULATION IN NIGERIA USING ARIMA MODEL

Authors

  • Abubakar Bello Department of Mathematics Gombe State University, Gombe
  • Bako Nata’ala Department of Mathematics Gombe State University, Gombe
  • A.U. Shelleng Department of Mathematics Gombe State University, Gombe
  • A. J. Kawu Department of Mathematics Gombe State University, Gombe

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56892/bima.v2i02.105

Keywords:

Currency in Circulation, ARIMA, Model Evaluation Criteria, Nigeria

Abstract

Currency in circulation is the outstanding amount for notes and coins circulated in the
economy and they are the most liquid monetary aggregate. Currency in circulation (CIC)
accounts for approximately seventy percent of reserve money in Nigeria. This research is
conducted to model and forecast currency in circulation in Nigeria from 2006 to 2015 with
different types of ARIMA family models. ARIMA (1, 1, 0) served as the best model among
the 12 postulated ARIMA models because it has the least values of Akaike information
criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). And also the research proposed the
ARIMA model for currency in circulation (CIC), the model evaluate the performance and
forecast three years observation (i.e from 2016 to 2018) of the process and the results shows
an increase of currency in circulation in Nigeria from 2016 to 2018.

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Published

2018-06-11

How to Cite

Bello, A., Nata’ala, B., A.U. Shelleng, & A. J. Kawu. (2018). TIME SERIES MODELING OF CURRENCIES IN CIRCULATION IN NIGERIA USING ARIMA MODEL. BIMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (2536-6041), 2(02), 216-226. https://doi.org/10.56892/bima.v2i02.105

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 02 (2018): Vol. 2 No. 2 June 2018

Section

Articles